Masudur Rahman: A new dynamism has emerged globally on the eve of the election for the next head of the United Nations, the pinnacle of global politics. As current Secretary-General António Guterres’s second term draws to a close, the central question on the banks of New York’s East River is—will the world finally see its first female Secretary-General in the UN’s 80-year history? Or will this global aspiration for female leadership be thwarted by geopolitical tensions and the internal political equations among superpowers?
Since the UN’s establishment in 1945, nine individuals have served as Secretary-General, all of whom have been men. The UN General Assembly and Security Council have jointly called upon member states to support qualified female candidates. Responding to this call, a host of experienced and influential women candidates have already joined the electoral race. Senior female diplomats such as Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne Baki, Head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Rebeca Grynspan, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, and former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister María Fernanda Espinosa are now being prominently mentioned.
Traditionally, there is an unwritten rule to maintain geographical balance in the UN’s top position. In this rotation, the Latin American and Caribbean region (GRULAC) has the strongest likelihood of producing the next Secretary-General. The presence of multiple experienced female diplomats in this region has further strengthened the path for electing a woman candidate. However, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and influential African politicians and diplomats are also contending in this race.
The Security Council’s ‘Veto’ and Superpower Bargaining: According to the UN Charter, the primary and main driving force behind the election of the Secretary-General is the 15-member Security Council. The exclusive veto power of the five permanent members of the Council—the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France (P5)—plays the biggest role in determining the final decision. Due to ongoing geopolitical polarization, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the unstable situation in the Middle East, reaching a consensus among these five nations has become a complex challenge.
History bears witness that many qualified candidates have fallen victim to the Security Council’s bargaining in the past. Consequently, beyond candidates’ professional skills and reform-oriented views, their perceived ‘acceptability’ or ‘neutrality’ from a geopolitical standpoint becomes the ultimate criterion for final success.
At a time when there is a strong global call for establishing gender equality, human rights, and inclusive policies, the absence of female leadership in the top global organization creates a paradox. The expectation worldwide is growing to see a brave and sagacious female leader to bring about fundamental changes in the UN’s policymaking structure, take firm steps to resolve international crises, and tackle challenges like climate change.
Through the UN Security Council’s informal straw polls and diplomatic communications, it will become clear whether the superpowers will respond in favor of global reform and make history, or prioritize their geographical and strategic interests. As the term of the ninth UN Secretary-General draws to a close, the global community now awaits—will the UN step into a new chapter of its history, or remain confined to the old political circle?